Gold:
I’m starting with gold today because I think gold is the key…well gold and the dollar. As soon as we get a swing high on gold I expect everything else to put in not only the daily cycle top but also the intermediate cycle top. At that point we should begin a three to five week journey down into an intermediate term low. Just so I’m clear I expect the bounce out of the coming daily cycle low to be a failure and left translated. By that I mean gold should not bounce out of the cycle low and move to new highs before it rolls over again and makes a lower low. The next daily cycle should take us down into the intermediate low and that is where we will get what should be one of the true buying opportunities of a lifetime. Dollar: I’m leaning towards the stock market tagging that 1120 resistance level before we put in the final top. If that’s the case then the dollar should make one final move to lower lows. Since we have pretty strong seasonality tomorrow and Friday I’m guessing that move down in the dollar is going to occur either tomorrow or Friday. Certainly by early next week as the daily cycle is now in the latter half of the timing band and running out of time. Stocks: Like I said I expect the market to make one final move up to 1120 before rolling over into the half cycle low. However if we happen to get another swing high before that then that scenario may come off the table. The fact that the market has been able to hold above 1100 probably puts the odds in favor of one final move higher. Oil: The fact that oil is now breaking down out of the multiweek consolidation is also suggesting we are about to enter an intermediate term decline. Short term indicators are still neutral. At this point we are just waiting for a swing high on gold and or a swing high on the stock market. Gary www.garyscommonsense.blogspot.com
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